Spanish cinema faces the threat of tariffs: "It's very difficult for Trump to change the reality of Hollywood."

The news that Donald Trump intends to impose a 100% tariff on all films produced in "foreign lands" has sent shockwaves through the film industry, and the expected reactions are ones of concern and confusion . Although the goal is supposedly to boost domestic production, protectionism could have very negative consequences in Hollywood, where there is fear of a knock-on effect that could stifle the productive fabric that has been consolidating in the global era.

The argument that the invasion of foreign cinema is a "threat to national security," suggesting that it may be a form of "messaging and propaganda," is received as a smokescreen by many members of the industry. For Spanish producer Enrique Lavigne ( The Impossible , The Call ), the measure has a point of masking a reality "that is imposing" and that is that "Hollywood is no longer what it was, and for some time now, not many films are made there, but rather they move to Canada. Now they are made in Tijuana for the tax benefits that are available there or in other places like the Dominican Republic or Malta."

It's true that American cinema has experienced a migration to international territories like the United Kingdom, South Africa, Canada, and Hungary , due to the convenience of financial incentives, but the actual application and impact of a tariff may not have the announced effect, and many members of the international film community and even Hollywood have expressed alarm. For Lavigne, "the filming system has really changed a lot. The financing system is in constant flux, and Hollywood continues to colonize the entire world , but it's no longer filming there. So if this is basically a protectionist measure for it to return, then it will have to be accompanied by another series of measures such as cheaper filming funds and incentives to face the heavy imposition of unions in American territory."

Such a drastic measure could disrupt the global flow of film and television trade, closely linked to the success of blockbusters that rely on locations in several countries, often with local workers. The uncertainty over how it would be applied also raises questions about the definition of "abroad." In Spain, there are no shortage of cases, such as the multi-season run of Game of Thrones , or according to Lavigne, "the Canary Islands are an epicenter of action movies. The Fast & Furious franchise, for example, has settled there, taken advantage of, and enjoyed the tax benefits offered by the islands, in addition to, obviously, the locations and many other things."

From within, the most immediate fear is that the measure will provoke retaliation. Until now, the National Film Administration of China had already announced that it would curtail Hollywood releases, but this new announcement could have unexpected repercussions for the entertainment industry in our theaters. For now, the Ministry of Culture is studying the impact the measure could have on our industry and has convened industry representatives this Wednesday to jointly address possible counteractions. However, for the moment, there is no official data on the proportion of Spanish film exports to the US in terms of total business volume or overall.

In fact, the direction of the measure may work in the opposite direction, according to Lavigne, " China is an emerging market and they are going to take advantage of the situation . This could be replicated in Europe but we are not as dependent on their market, protectionist measures could be taken but it is complicated. In France there is a protection of screen quotas and perhaps the Ministry of Culture is looking in that direction." For now, what can be glimpsed is that the measure would double the import cost of any film produced outside the US, but the measure is very vague because "outside the United States they also have their rules of the game, each system has its own hubs and has been globalizing in a very different way than it was in the 80s and 90s, but since the beginning of the 2000s the financing system has changed a lot, now it is absolutely different from what was established in the golden years. There may be many reasons, perhaps those that have led them to make decisions, but we also don't know what they are or how they will affect."

The Academy also lacks clear data on the possible consequences. "We know the news has reached the media," they say, but they do affirm that "we have to be careful. We know this man makes statements every day, but he doesn't specify anything . The uncertainty is widespread right now, not just in Spain. What we can compare is how we've made a number of demands at our awards, but they haven't heard any strong statements there, except for the documentary that won. They seemed to be cautious in the press. This is unusual for this type of ceremony, and it tells us what the situation is." Several Spanish production companies, such as Atresmedia and Netflix Spain, who prefer not to comment, and Telecinco Cinema, who state that "we can't make predictions on these hypothetical matters; so far, it's almost speculation because it hasn't happened yet. When we get to that day, we'll cross that bridge."

Lavigne acknowledges that it's too early to predict anything. "Right now, it's just another statement within the hyper-nationalist phase that American trade policy is proposing," she says, but agrees with the Academy that, a priori, the monetary impact on Spanish cinema has nothing to do with how many films we premiere there. " Our presence in their theaters is symbolic , although through festivals or small distributors, big hits like Robot Dreams can happen," it's at film festivals where the interest lies, and "it's striking that this is happening right before Cannes, which means that many distributors and rights holders, who are trying to access the most important titles that will supply their distributors during the year, have greater uncertainty in these negotiations, so it's going to be an intense and complicated Cannes ."

"If the rules of the game are not exactly known now, then they may not be bought, as happened with two films like Anora and Emilia Pérez , which benefited from the system to be bought for very large amounts. If Cannes is like an experiment for a product launch, it offers added value that will have been diminished by the uncertainty generated by an announcement that has not yet been developed further than the announcement." The interruption of international co-productions may have its true impact on streaming services that offer a wide range of content that could face increased costs, or a reduced selection of titles for American subscribers.

Sometimes, a Netflix purchase, for example, can solve production costs, but for Lavigne, " we will have to cautiously look at how Trump and his administration address the platforms and hubs that have been set up in other countries. We will have to wait and see what the new rules of the game are, but things have changed. There has always been the struggle between Edison and Lumière, over who invented cinema and who commercialized it. Perhaps Europe has more experience right now than when cinema was born to defend itself. In addition, cinema has globalized; a series like El eternauta is the first mainstream series from Argentina not aimed at a niche. It has special effects and top-notch technology to be able to compete with any apocalyptic film from any other territory, and that is what we have learned thanks to the platforms. Now a film or series is released and reaches many more territories than any simultaneous theatrical release between two continents, and that is what will define this game. Let's see what the impositions are on the platforms that right now are really the ones that have opened this new path"

Also on the table are potential legal challenges and the viability of measures within trade agreements and international laws that limit the United States' ability to unilaterally impose its fantasies. Lavigne asserts that "there is an overwhelming reality that prevails, and that is that Hollywood is no longer Hollywood; there is a combination of situations that make its cinema never the same again. For example, Oscar contenders increasingly depend on the diversity of nationalities; the diversity of the American academic community has also greatly influenced voting at the Academy Awards. It is very difficult for Trump to change or overturn that reality."